Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
