Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
